CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – The latest map early afternoon from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center appeared to shift the “moderate” severe storm risk for Monday further east out of much of the Charlottesville area.

The map had Charlottesville and Albemarle as of Monday morning in the “enhanced” and “moderate” risk shading.

But the map as of 12:28 EDT shifted most of the area into a yellow “slight” risk area.

As Accuweather meteorologist Jason Caterina noted to WINA Morning News earlier in the morning could happen, the earlier severe storm activity north of the area and heavy rains in the immediate area, along with the continuing cloud cover, indeed reduced the risk.

The change is reflected in the tornado watch until 7 p.m. in eastern localities, but not in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Greene, Madison, or Nelson counties.

The National Weather Service around 11 a.m. issued a tornado watch for eastern and northern parts of the Charlottesville area until 7 p.m.

Included in the watch are Culpeper, Fluvanna, Louisa, and Orange counties.

The warning statement said, “severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail”.

The National Weather Service around 10:35 a.m. posted its first tornado warning in Virginia from the storm system that included northwestern Culpeper County in addition to northwestern Fauquier County and eastern Rappahannock County until 11 a.m.

According to the advisory, at 1033 a.m., a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located seven miles east of Sperryville, or twelve miles northwest of Culpeper, moving northeast at 55 miles-per-hour.

There had been no spotting of any rotation, but the NWS said the warning was issued after “radar indicated rotation”.

“For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.”

“Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur; mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed; tree damage is likely,” the NWS warning said.

The National Weather Service around 10 a.m. posted a severe thunderstorm warning until 10:45 a.m. for north central Albemarle, all of Greene and Madison counties, southeastern Rockingham and southwestern Culpeper County for a fast-moving storm around 10 o’clock about seven miles north of Free Union.

The warning does not include Charlottesville, but there is a strong storm dumping moderate to heavy rain around the urban ring and points south.

According to the NWS, “the storm, moving northeast at 60 miles-per-hour, has damaging winds gusting to 60 that will cause some trees and large branches to fall.”

“This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles.”

“Roadways may become blocked by downed trees.”

“Localized power outages are possible.”

“Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.”

A cold front approaching the East Coast could bring severe weather, including high winds and even tornados, to our region according to the National Weather Service and Accuweather.

Accuweather said “a regional severe weather outbreak on Monday will produce widespread destructive wind gusts and even some tornados.”

The cold front will be sweeping the East Coast by Monday afternoon which, combined with temperatures rising through the day and a wave of low pressure, could cause “additional instability for the already volatile situation,” according to the NWS.

“The cold front will be moving off the East Coast by Tuesday morning, bringing windy and sharply colder weather into the entire eastern
U.S.,” the NWS said.

An NWS Hazardous Weather statement advised, “Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes are likely this afternoon and evening. There is the potential for significant damage from wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph as well as an isolated stronger tornado. These threats are highest for areas along and east of Interstate 81.”

“A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Northern and Central Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains through 2 AM Tuesday. Strong wind gusts not associated with thunderstorms could result in isolated instances of wind damage.”

Weather-related activity for Mon, March 16:

ARC of the Piedmont – Centers closed Monday, office closes 1 p.m,
JABA – All locations to close at 1 p.m. Monday, those needing assistance ahead of the storm can call the JABA Helpline at 434-817-5244
James Monroe’s Highland – Closed Monday
Meals on Wheels Fluvanna – Closed Monday
Orange Co Public Schools – school is on-schedule Monday, extracurricular activities Monday, and school board meeting is postponed until Tues., March 17 at 5:30 p.m.
Sentara Martha Jefferson Hospital – Alert Monday, modified operations with full information at sentara.com/weather
UVA Health – Alert Monday, modified operations with full information at uvahealth.com/status