CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – Last week, Abigail Spanberger, Democratic nominee for governor, picked up the endorsement from the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, a nod that traditionally goes toward the Republicans, as it did in 2021.
But the PBA also endorsed John Reid, the GOP’s nominee for lieutenant governor, and Jason Miyares, the incumbent Republican attorney general.
“We all run independently,” Reid told Cville Right Now. “I guess we’ll wait and see what that means.”
The divided endorsement is the latest indicator that Virginia has a chance to produce its first split ticket election result since 2005.
That year, Democrat Tim Kaine – now a U.S. senator – won the governor’s race, while Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell, both Republicans, were elected lieutenant governor and attorney general.
“Virginia has elections not in the federal election year,” said Kaine, also part of a split-ticket result in 2001. “Because we are off cycle, they tend to be less federalized, less nationalized.”
Still, since 2005, statewide elections in the Commonwealth have stuck to party lines. Republicans swept in 2009, with Gov. McDonnell, Lt. Gov. Bolling and attorney general Ken Cuccinelli all receiving between 57 and 59% of the vote.
In 2013, the Democrats won all three races, with Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and attorney general Mark Herring garnering between 48 and 55% of the vote.
In 2017, the Democrats swept again, with Northam winning the governor’s race, Justin Fairfax being elected lieutenant governor and Herring earning reelection as the attorney general. Each candidate received between 53 and 54% of the vote.
In the most recent election cycle, the Republicans won three tightly contested races, with Gov. Glenn Youngkin being elected with 51% of the vote, Earle-Sears winning the lieutenant governor post with 51% and Miyares being elected attorney general with 50% of ballots being cast in his favor.
“I do think you’re seeing a trend in Virginia away from split tickets,” Kaine said, before adding, “I still think it’s possible.”
The latest polling – released Tuesday by Roanoke College – shows Spanberger still holding a strong lead over Winsome Earle-Sears, with a 7% edge, up 46%-39%. That margin is down from the first Roanoke poll in May, when Spanberger held a 43% to 26% advantage.
But down the ballot, the lieutenant governor and attorney general races are much closer, with the Democrats – Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones – holding just 3% leads over Reid and Miyares, within the poll’s margin of error.
Perspective voters who were polled give the Democrats a big edge in being able to handle health care (46% to Republicans 27%), education (45%-31%), social security (42%-28%), Medicare/Medicaid (47%-26%), and the environment (48%-24%).
The poll shows voters give the GOP nominees modest edges in being able to handle debt and the deficit (34%-28%) and immigration (40%-33%).
Adding to the prospect of a split ballot in 2025 is the fact that the Republican ticket has not been a unified force.
The trio will appear together on Sept. 6 in Richmond, just the second time since the ticket became official in June. Reid and Earle-Sears reportedly went nearly two months without speaking to each other over the summer. It was fallout from the revelation that Reid, the GOP’s first openly gay statewide candidate, was linked to a social media account that had shared sexually explicit content.
That led Gov. Glenn Youngkin to call on Reid to drop out from the race. Reid denied the account was his, stayed in the race and became the nominee.
But around the Commonwealth, people took note of the fact that Earle-Sears, Reid and Miyares were not campaigning together, in stark contrast to the Democrats’ ticket.
“I want the best for Winsome. I’m gonna be voting for Winsome,” Reid said. “I make sure that I speak highly of her work as lieutenant governor and as a member of the legislature and as a private business owner. When I give remarks around the community I have, of course, nothing but high praise for Jason Miyares. I think it’s, of course, best for us if we could all make a case for each other but in the end, I have to trust the voters of Virginia.”
Does Reid believe Earle-Sears and Miyares are returning the same level of support he shows them?
“We went through a rough patch a few months ago,” Reid said. “And I think everybody’s where they need to be. I’m putting in the work on the road to go to big cities and small towns all over the state and I feel good about where we are.”
